Risk Assessment Using Spatial Prediction Model for Natural Disaster Preparedness

Abstract

The spatial mapping of risk is critical in planning for disaster preparedness. An application from a study area affected by mass movements is used as an example to portray the desirable relations between hazard prediction and disaster management. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i) construction of a hazard prediction map of “future” hazardous events; (ii) validation/reliability of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of socio-economic factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with socio-economic data. Three-dimensional dynamic display techniques can be used to obtain the contextual setting of the risk space/time/level distribution and to plan measures for risk avoidance or mitigation, or for disaster preparedness and risk management. A software approach provides the analytical structure and modeling power as a fundamental tool for decision making.