Risk Assessment: Promises and Pitfalls

Abstract

Risk assessment pervades our daily lives. Insurance companies and anti-terrorism specialists make their livelihoods by guessing at the likelihood of catastrophic events. All players in the criminal justice system have also routinely — and informally — used risk assessment. In setting a sentence, courts consider the recidivism risk an offender presents; parole authorities attempt to ascertain how likely a potential parolee is to re-offend; presidents and governors assess the likelihood a convicted offender will commit further crimes after receiving a pardon. In the past, however, risk assessment has been an informal process, in some cases assisted through the clinical judgments of psychologists and psychiatrists. Increasingly, it is now being supplemented with statistical data and actuarial methods. The authors in this Issue discuss currently used methodologies in assessing risk and address the application of risk assessment at different points of the criminal justice system. While some of the authors focus on sex offenders, risk assessment is much more broadly applicable, as others indicate. What are the advantages of risk assessment in sentencing and post conviction? What pitfalls does risk assessment present?