Risk assessment of wind-photovoltaic-hydrogen storage projects using an improved fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach based on cloud model: A case study in China

Abstract

In the energy transition process to full sustainability, Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects are up-and-coming in electricity supply and carbon emission reduction. However, there are many risk factors in Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects, which lead to the difficulty of investment and construction. This problem slowed down energy transformation to renewable. Therefore, this paper tries to conduct a risk assessment of Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects using an improved fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach based on cloud model. Firstly, a total of 72 risk factors of Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects are collected through literature review. Then 14 key risk factors are identified by expert questionnaires and classified into four groups: economic risk, technical risk, environment risk, and safety risk. Secondly, the importance weights of these risk factors are determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Following this, an improved fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach based on cloud model is proposed to calculate the overall risk level of Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects. A case study in China is provided to illustrate the validation of the proposed framework. Results show that China's Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen storage projects are mainly between relatively low risk and medium risk. Finally, some policy implications are given to alleviate or remove those high-risk factors. And with criterion weight 0.21 to 0.06, technical risk is much more important than environment risk.