Abstract
Water transportation is system engineering, including four aspects: staff, vessel, environment and management. The four main aspects are affected by many unspecific factors. An unascertained measure model for evaluating the risks of water transportation in Three Gorges Reservoir was proposed on the basis of system engineering method in this paper, and the risk factors in the water area were identified and quantitative analysis of risk were done. In terms of the defects of traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method in confirming weight, a composed method was proposed to determine the weight of indexes based on the improved analytic hierarchy process and information entropy. The application shows that the unascertained measure model based on system engineering can quantify the risk of water transportation system, and also be conducive to decision-making of the risk control.
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