Risk assessment of voltage overrun probability of photovoltaic access distribution system voltage based on quasi-Monte Carlo method

Abstract

With the rapid development of renewable energy, distributed PV access to the distribution grid has become a common form. However, distributed PV access to the distribution network (DN) may cause voltage overrun problems, which brings challenges to the stability and reliability of the DN. In order to reasonably assess the impact of PV grid connection, the paper proposes a probabilistic trend calculation based on the quasi-Monte Carlo mode method to obtain the node voltage overrun probability under the premise of considering the stochastic nature of PV power generation and load fluctuation, and combines with the utility preference exponential function to characterize the overrun severity, to construct a comprehensive assessment model of voltage overrun probability risk. Taking the IEEE33 node system as an example, the simulation results show that the rational selection of access points effectively reduces the risk of overrun of the whole DN, and improves the safety of the distribution network.