Risk assessment of urban rooftop distributed PV in energy performance contracting (EPC) projects: An extended HFLTS-DEMATEL fuzzy synthetic evaluation analysis

Abstract

Promoted by the policy, urban rooftop distributed photovoltaic (URDPV) has developed rapidly in China. Besides, the government is gradually applying energy performance contracting (EPC) mode to this field making use of urban rooftop resources and energy service companies’ (ECOs’) technological advantages, but there are still obstacles to further development. One of the main reasons that restrict the further development of EPC-URDPV projects in China is the lack of effective risk assessment method. This paper aims to identify the critical risk factors (CRFs) for such projects, and propose a comprehensive risk assessment framework. Firstly, 11 CRFs are identified based on the literature review and 4-dimensional risk analysis to composed the risk assessment index system. Secondly, the weights of CRFs are determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy-decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (IF-DEMATEL) method. It is worth noting that this paper uses the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets (HFLTS) to obtain evaluation information to ensure the completeness and fuzziness of experts’ viewpoints. Then, an extended HFLTS-DEMATEL fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is used to conduct risk assessment. The evaluation results show that the risk levels of EPC-URDPV projects in most study areas are at “Medium” and “Relatively Low” state. The risk level of projects in Shanghai and Fujian is “Relatively High”. Sensitivity analysis results show the stability and reliability of the model. After considering the causes of risk and relevant stakeholders, a risk response is proposed. This study can enrich the methods in the field of risk assessment and provide insightful references to PV investors, decision makers.