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Abstract
In recent years, the accident rate of urban rail transit PPP (public–private partnerships) project under construction has been relatively high, and the issue of security risks has attracted great attention from all walks of life. Therefore, it is necessary to identify, analyze, and evaluate the issue of security risks of the urban rail transit PPP project. This paper takes the PPP project of urban rail transit as the object. Through offline interviews and surveys and online questionnaires, this paper focuses on identifying and analyzing the risks brought by the introduction of PPP mode to the urban rail transit project and its action mechanism. The risk evaluation method based on Bayesian network model is studied, which is described from three dimensions: risk occurrence probability, risk reasoning, and risk sensitivity. Finally, an example of Xuzhou Metro Line 3 is given to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. This study provides a reference basis for relevant practitioners and promotes the healthy development of the industry.
Highlights
Urban rail transit has become the first choice for cities in many countries to alleviate traffic congestion due to its advantages of low pollution, large traffic volume, and fast running speed
The capital of urban rail transit construction has always been dominated by local government finance in China
This paper proposes a construction risk assessment method based on Bayesian network (BN)
Summary
Urban rail transit has become the first choice for cities in many countries to alleviate traffic congestion due to its advantages of low pollution, large traffic volume, and fast running speed. In China, urban rail transit is developing rapidly. From the completion of Beijing Metro Line 1 in 1969 to the end of 2020, 45 cities have opened and operated urban rail transit lines. The mileage of urban rail transit lines that have been completed and put into operation has reached 7978.18 km. The capital of urban rail transit construction has always been dominated by local government finance in China. The investment in subway construction is huge. The cost of subway construction is up to CNY 1 billion per kilometer, which brings great financial pressure and debt risks to the local government
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