Risk assessment of unmanned underwater platforms in the South China Sea marine environment based on two-dimensional density-weighted operator and cloud barycentric Bayesian combination

Abstract

With the rise of unmanned combat in naval battles, military powers are paying increasing attention to unmanned underwater platforms. However, there are few studies on the interaction between unmanned underwater platforms and naval battlefield environments, and most of them provide qualitative descriptions, which are of little help in future combat deployment and the development and utilization of marine resources. To solve this problem, we constructed a natural environmental risk index system for unmanned underwater platform operations in a sea area using the marine environmental factor data of the South China Sea region. We used a two-dimensional density-weighted operator to obtain the weights of different impact factors and conducted a risk assessment of the South China Sea region leveraging the cloud barycenter-Bayesian network method. The overall risk probability of unmanned underwater platforms was 14.7%, with a higher risk of 19.0%, a medium risk of 26.0%, a lower risk of 21.2%, and a low risk of 19.1%. Additionally, the risks in the west and north of the South China Sea were larger than those in the south and east. Therefore, the risk in offshore areas was greater than that in the open sea. Consequently, the open sea is more suitable for operating the relevant unmanned underwater platforms. Overall, this study provides technical support for the risk assessment of unmanned underwater vehicles operating in the South China Sea and the development and utilization of marine resources.