Risk assessment of the impact on human health of resistant Campylobacter jejuni from fluoroquinolone use in beef cattle

Abstract

Use of antimicrobials in livestock is controversial and may lead to the emergence of resistant organisms that could be transmitted to humans through the food supply. Our quantitative risk assessment employs Monte Carlo methodology to analyze the potential public health risk from Campylobacter jejuni and fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant C. jejuni because of fresh beef and ground beef consumption. The quantitative study begins with beef products in the retail display case. Data from a variety of sources have been assembled into the model as predictors of the prevalence and quantity of C. jejuni in specific types of beef. Consumer behaviors – handling, cooking and consumption — are modeled in our study to predict exposure. The consequences of exposure in some individuals are infection, illness, hospitalization, or even death. We estimated that approximately 16,000 individuals in the US might be infected by C. jejuni derived from both ground beef and fresh beef sources. Furthermore, we predicted the probability of adverse consequences arising from both C. jejuni and FQ-resistant C. jejuni. Results from our quantitative risk assessment model are lower when compared to similar public health outcomes for beef products estimated by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS). However, incorporation of uncertainty and variability in estimates from our model and the CDC and USDA-ERS suggest that the disparity among the estimates is small.