Abstract
The risk assessment of submarine pipeline is carried out considering vertical and horizontal displacements under hydrodynamic forces. The stability of the pipeline is assessed according to limit-state functions using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The effects of subsea topography, hydrodynamic loads of waves and currents, pipe-soil interaction, and characteristics of hazardous materials carried by the pipeline were examined. The failure probability obtained by the MC simulation was defined by the exceedance probability of the displacement limit state. The novel part of this paper is the MC simulation which is coupled with a 3-D hydrodynamic numerical model (Hydrotam-3D) developed by Balas (Balas and Ozhan, 2000). The effects of pipe-soil interactions and environmental parameters such as wave-induced currents can be obtained by this model coupling. The most important parameters that affect the results of the simulations are obtained. Hydrodynamic loads that depend on the combined actions of waves and currents are obtained by the hydrodynamic numerical model (Hydrotam-3D) and they are used in the MC simulation, to increase the reliability of the pipeline design.
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