Risk Assessment of Road Blockage after Earthquakes

Abstract

This paper presents a safety tool to assess the risk of road blockage during and after emergency situations, mainly due to earthquakes. This method can be used by public authorities to calculate the risk of road paths prone to blockage in case of seismic events. Typological classes of elements interfering with roads, such as unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete buildings, unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete bridges, retaining walls, and slopes, are considered. The mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of a blockage limit state is calculated for a path with redundant road segments considering fragility curves from the literature. A practical example is presented for Amatrice, a town in Central Italy hit by the 2016 earthquake. After verifying that the MAF of exceedance demand is lower than the capacity for two roads, a strengthening solution is assumed for two buildings in the path, resulting in a reduction by more than 50% of the MAF demand. For a higher safety level, a bypass is proposed obtaining a demand/capacity ratios four orders of magnitude lower than that obtained with strengthening solutions, highlighting and quantifying the beneficial effect of removing vulnerable structures along the path.