Risk Assessment of Rice Damage Due to Heavy Rain in Taiwan

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a crucial staple crop globally but is damaged under extreme precipitation. Risk assessment for heavy rain (HR) damage events is essential for developing strategies for adapting to climate change. In this study, weather and rice damage data were used to assess the risk of HR damage events in Taiwan. These events were classified into nontyphoon-caused HR (NTCHR) and typhoon-caused HR (TCHR) events. The temporal, spatial, and weather characteristics of HR damage events were selected as risk factors for rice HR damage. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the effects of the selected risk factors on the occurrence and severity of HR damage events. The odds of an NTCHR damage event were 4.33 and 4.17 times higher in the reproductive and ripening stages, respectively, than during the vegetative stage. Moreover, each 1 mm increase in the maximum daily precipitation increased the odds of an NTCHR and TCHR damage event by 2% and 3%, respectively. In this study, the documentary data of damage events present a potential for assessment of weather damage event risk. Moreover, the risk of rice HR damage events in Taiwan is affected by not only weather but also temporal and spatial factors.