Risk assessment of renewable energy-based island microgrid using the HFLTS-cloud model method

Abstract

Difficulty in power supply has always been the main factor hindering the sustainable development of islands. It is an effective way to address the energy supply issue of off-grid islands by building island microgrid system with abundant renewable energy, such as wind energy and solar energy. However, island microgrids offer a mix of the high penetration rate of renewable energy and the complex island environment, being confronted with many challenges in the whole life cycle. To implement the project smoothly and make full use of the advantages of renewable energy-based island microgrids, a risk assessment must be incorporated. In this study, based on a three-dimensional model, we take a holistic view of identifying risks that includes four categories (technical, economic, environmental and social aspects). Later, a reasonable and applicable risk assessment framework is constructed, in which the fuzziness and randomness of information are taken into consideration. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set is used to endow the index evaluation information, and the cloud model is used to transform the evaluation information. The final results show that the overall risk level of China’s island microgrids is “Slightly High”, particularly in the technical aspect. Furthermore, corresponding mitigation strategies are put forward. This study conducts a comprehensive study on the risk assessment and risk response measures of island microgrids, which is conducive to deal with potential risks, thereby to minimize the loss and promote the island microgrid development.