Abstract
In view of the randomness of component fault and load, considering the deficiency of traditional single reliability index, this paper introduces the Conditional Value-at-risk method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and constructs the probability model of risk assessment considering the forced outage rate of unit and line. In order to quantify uncertainty caused by random factors, the value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk of power system security was proposed and used as a grid security index in the model combined with reliability index, which can accurately describe secure operation level in power system under different operation parameters, and reflect the severity of the accident and weakness and the grid, for further research on safe operation of power system to offer reference and decision-making basis.
Published Version
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