Risk Assessment of Power Generated from a Wind Turbine in Different Climate Cities in Indonesia.

Abstract

In this paper, a risk analysis based on Monte Carlo Simulation has been used to examine the power generated from a wind turbine. There are five cities are selected based on the wind speed to be examined the power density generated from the wind turbine. The cities are Kupang, Tanjung Pinang, Krinci, Kotabaru, and Pontianak. Among the five cities, Kupang has the highest wind speed, while Pontianak has the lowest wind speed. In this study, the wind speed is assumed to be an unspecified parameter or a random variable. The Monte Carlo Simulation is run by using a software @RISK. The results show that the mean of power density generated from the wind turbine is found 171.23, 113.97, 71.28, 28.67, and 12.49 W/m2 for Kupang, Tanjung Pinang, Krinci, Kotabaru, and Pontianak respectively. The width of the confidence interval with the level of probability 90% is 110.30, 75.00, 69.10, 19.64, and 7.34 W/m2 for Kupang, Tanjung Pinang, Krinci, Kotabaru, and Pontianak respectively. The upper bound of the confidence intervals are 230.1, 154.7, 113.3, 39.27, and 16.30 W/m2 for Kupang, Tanjung Pinang, Krinci, Kotabaru, and Pontianak respectively, while the lower bounds are 119.8, 79.7, 44.2, and 19.63 W/m2 for Kupang, Tanjung Pinang, Krinci, Kotabaru, and Pontianak respectively. The probability of the power density will exceed the upper bound or will below the lower bound is 5%.