Abstract
In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC). The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP); Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS) to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.
Highlights
1.1 Research backgroundMaritime risk is one of the most important focus areas for waterway transportation
Under the general framework summarized in 1.3, the developed general risk assessment steps based on grey fixed weight cluster are stated as follows: Step 1: Structure the index system including total n indices; Step 2: Use fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to calculate the subjective weight of each index; Step 3: Evaluate each index to get the judgement matrix quantized by rikj ; Let rikj be the membership to the k-th grey class about the j-th index, where subscript i indicates the i-th evaluation object
On the basis of the general saying about the nautical navigational environment, the scholars used to group nautical navigational environment attributes into three categories: natural environment, channel condition, and traffic environment [73, 74], for setting up a risk evaluation index system
Summary
Maritime risk is one of the most important focus areas for waterway transportation. Researchers and maritime authorities have been paying special attention to the risky areas where traffic density is high for a long time. Lots of theories and models have been developed for maritime risk assessment. There is no doubt that it is of great significance to evaluate nautical navigation environment appropriately, which demands enough of the original data, proper theories, and suitable mathematical models, etc. Related studies [4, 5] show that the grey clustering decision-making, which is an important component of grey theory, is suitable for cluster analysis in case of a lack of data or object information. A grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC) model with implementation scheme will be established in this paper for comprehensive risk assessment of nautical navigational environment. From the point of research task, the proposed model together with the bottleneck solutions will be applied to evaluate the risk of Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment. The comprehensive risk evaluation result aims to provide a scientific reference for decision-making in risk prevention /disaster mitigation
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