Risk assessment of landslides: Low probability scenario for the town of Kavarna, northern Black Sea coast of Bulgaria

Abstract

As part of the Reimbursable Advisory Services on Accelerating Resilience to Disaster Risks, the World Bank worked with the Interior Ministry of Bulgaria to develop a proposal for the National Disaster Risk Profile of Bulgaria. The purpose of this document, which is the fourth technical annex to the proposal for the National Disaster Risk Profile, is to provide particular conclusions, information, and techniques that were utilised to evalu-ate the risk of landslides in Bulgaria. For the first time at the national level, landslide risk assessment procedures based on ISO/IEC 31010:2019 Risk assessment techniques are being developed and applied in Bulgaria. The five primary categories in which the results are presented are physical safety, economic security, social well-being, environmental security, and security of tangible assets and critical infrastructure. The uncertainty (confidence) parameter is utilised, and it is subdivided into the following three basic categories: low uncertainty, medium uncertainty, and high uncertainty. The produced results demonstrate consistent applicability to empirical data analysis and real-world situations.