Risk assessment of inter-basin water transfer plans through integration of Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network modelling approaches

Abstract

Inter-basin water transfer projects are a common method used to balance water resources and meet regional demand, particularly in the drinking water supply sector. The potential failure risk associated with inter-basin water transfer projects was examined using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) methodologies in this study. Additionally, the conversion of Fault Tree models into Bayesian Network (BN) and Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) models was explored. Ten basic events were identified as factors that could affect the success of inter-basin water transfer plans, including socio-political, environmental, water resource, economic, and technical criteria. Fault Tree and Fuzzy Fault Tree models were utilized to conduct a risk analysis, which was then converted into crisp and fuzzy FTA-BN through an integrated approach. This approach was applied to evaluate inter-basin water transfer scenarios from the Great Karun basin to the Central Iran Plateau. The superior scenario among eight water transfer scenarios was found to be water transfer from the Behesht-Abad Basin to Isfahan province and from the Khersan Basin to Kerman and Yazd provinces, with a failure risk of 0.649 and 0.601 respectively, based on the crisp and fuzzy integrated models. Basic events were ranked based on their contribution to the occurrence of the top event using two FIM and BI indices in the Fault Tree model and two indices of MI and SI in the Bayesian Network. Furthermore, after considering the correlation between basic events and risk factors, the risk obtained by crisp and fuzzy integrated models was found to increase to 0.811 and 0.789 respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that an integrated approach can assist decision-makers and stakeholders in evaluating inter-basin water transfer projects.