Risk assessment of infrastructure REITs projects based on cloud model: a case study of China

Abstract

PurposeThe need for infrastructure is growing as urbanization picks up speed, and the infrastructure REITs financing model has been crucial in reviving the vast infrastructure stock, alleviating the pressure on government funds and diversifying investment entities. This study aims to propose a framework to better assess the risks of infrastructure REITs, which can serve for the researchers and the policy makers to propose risk mitigation strategies and policy recommendations more purposively to facilitate successful implementation and long-term development of infrastructure REITs.Design/methodology/approachThe infrastructure REITs risk evaluation index system is established through literature review and factor analysis, and the optimal comprehensive weight of the index is calculated using the combination weight. Then, a risk evaluation cloud model of infrastructure REITs is constructed, and experts quantify the qualitative language of infrastructure REITs risks. This paper verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model by taking a basic REITs project in China as an example. This paper takes infrastructure REITs project in China as an example, to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud evaluation method.FindingsThe research outcome shows that infrastructure REITs risks manifest in the risk of policy and legal, underlying asset, market, operational and credit. The main influencing factors in terms of their weights are tax policy risk, operation and management risk, liquidity risk, termination risk and default risk. The financing project is at a higher risk, and the probability of risk is 64.2%.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by supplementing a set of scientific and practical risk evaluation methods to assess the potential risks of infrastructure REITs project, which contributes the infrastructure financing risk management system. Identify key risk factors for infrastructure REITs with underlying assets, which contributes to infrastructure REITs project management. This research can help relevant stakeholders to control risks throughout the infrastructure investment and financing life cycle, provide them with reference for investment and financing decision-making and promote more sustainable and healthy development of infrastructure REITs in developing countries.