Abstract
Ice dams are among the important risks affecting the operational safety and water conveyance efficiency of water diversion projects in northern China. However, no evaluation indicator system for ice dam risk assessment of water diversion projects has been proposed. Therefore, in this paper, based on the formation mechanism of ice dams, the risk assessment indicator system and the possibility calculation model of ice dams were both proposed for water diversion projects based on the fuzzy fault tree analysis method. The ice dam risk fault tree constructed in this study mainly includes three aspects: ice production, ice transport, and ice submergence conditions. Eighteen basic risk indicators were identified, and 72 minimum cut sets were obtained by using the mountain climb method. Eight risk indicators were determined as the key risk indicators for ice dams, including meteorological conditions, narrowed cross section, sluice incident, erroneous scheduling judgment, ice cover influence, flat bed slope, control structures, and ice flow resistance of piers. Then, the canal from the Fenzhuanghe sluice to the Beijumahe sluice of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was taken as the research object. Combined with the expert scoring method, the ice dam risk probability of the canal was determined to be 0.2029 × 10−2, which was defined as a level III risk, which is an occasionally occurring risk. The study results can support ice dam risk prevention and canal system operation in winter for water diversion projects.
Highlights
Ice dams are a phenomenon in which a large number of large ice blocks quickly accumulate in a specific river or canal cross section, resulting in a rapid decrease in the cross-sectional area and a rapid rise in the upstream water level
The safety and pertinence of winter operation risk prevention and control projects are improved by evaluating the ice dam risk of water diversion projects
Eighteen disaster risk indicators were identified, 72 minimum cut sets were obtained, and eight risk indicators were determined as the main risk indicators, including meteorological conditions, narrowed cross section, sluice incident, erroneous scheduling judgment, ice cover influence, flat bed slope, control structures, and ice flow resistance of piers
Summary
Ice dams are a phenomenon in which a large number of large ice blocks quickly accumulate in a specific river or canal cross section, resulting in a rapid decrease in the cross-sectional area and a rapid rise in the upstream water level. Since the whole project was brought into operation in 2014, the canal system has been operated under complex ice evolution and conditions in winter as the spatiotemporal distribution of ice cover and ice thickness increase the threat of ice disasters (Wen et al 2015). Different degrees of ice conditions appear in the canal downstream of the Anyanghe sluice every winter (Li et al 2017a). The operational strategy with decreased flow in the canal system in winter is different from the strategy for other seasons to improve operational safety. The ice cover breaks into larger ice blocks, which accumulate in the
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