Risk assessment of hybrid rain harvesting system and other small drinking water supply systems by game theory and fuzzy logic modeling

Abstract

The complexity and uncertainties affecting drinking water supply systems and threatening hazards require a comprehensive and effective risk assessment to increase the reliability of drinking water safety, especially for small or household systems. This study presents a hierarchical structure risk assessment model based on fuzzy logic and game theory to assess the quantity, treatment technology, distribution systems, and storage at household level risks, for small systems in remote areas. Game theory combined with an analytical hierarchy process with entropy weight method is employed. The efficiency tradeoffs in risk from use of this model are examined in a case study which includes three types of small systems (i.e., rainwater harvesting, surface water combined with rainwater and groundwater) in Gansu Province, China. Fifteen risk factors are employed, with evaluation results showing that “Source water” is the most important factor. The hybrid (surface & rainwater) system in the driest year has “Medium” risk with the highest aggregate risk value as a result of source water availability and the distribution system is the most susceptible to failure. The groundwater system consistently has the lowest risk in the case study area. The utility of the model provides scientific support to decision-makers to plan for the most effective risk mitigation measures for water supply systems in remote areas. A cloud-based online-platform employing this methodology has been developed to facilitate the adoption of the methodology in remote areas with mobile or internet access.