Risk Assessment of Human Activities on Protected Areas: A Case Study

Abstract

ABSTRACTNo study has been done on the impact of anthropogenic risks on protected areas. This may be due to complexity and diversity of risk assessment indices. In this research, using multicriteria decision-making methods, qualitative and complex indices were converted to simple and quantitative indices by which anthropogenic risks affecting the Helleh Protected Area in Iran were analyzed. To this end, a questionnaire was prepared and delivered to Delphi panelists consisting of environmental expertise. In order to prioritize the identified risks, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Simple Additive Weighting Technique (SAW) were used as a subset of Multiple Attribute Decision-making methods (MADM). In this study, risk factors were evaluated using three criteria of severity, probability of occurrence, and sensitivity of the recipient environment. In order to reach enough transcendence (consensus on priority of risks), an integrated approach comprising average, Borda, and Copeland methods was used. The obtained results suggested that “dam inundation upstream of the study area” is a top-priority risky factor threatening the wetland. “Stopping water pumps from the wetland” and “use of modern irrigation systems” were recommended as the most effective managerial strategies to control the identified risk.