Risk Assessment of High-voltage Cable System Based on Cable Failure Probability and Failure loss

Abstract

With the rapid development of urbanization and power grids, the scale of power cable assets continues to increase. By the end of 2019, 110kV and above XLPE cables in operation have exceeded 30,000 kilometers in China. At present, some XLPE cables in operation have entered the late stage of aging or have reached the design life. How to effectively evaluate the operation risks of XLPE cable lines and arrange cable asset management strategies has become an urgent problem in the field of high-voltage cables. In this paper, a high voltage cable system risk assessment model based on cable fault probability and fault loss is proposed from two aspects of cable state health and importance. Cable state health is characterized by the probability of cable failure. By combining the Weibull distribution and the cox risk ratio model, a high-voltage cable failure probability model is established. The importance of the cable is characterized by a failure loss model that considers both economic and noneconomic factors. Based on the risk assessment model of high voltage cable systems, this paper selects relevant information of multiple high voltage cable lines, obtains the key parameters of the model, and gives a practical case analysis. The cable risk assessment model proposed in this article can provide a certain reference for asset condition assessment and strategy planning of high-voltage cables.t.