Abstract
Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.
Highlights
In recent years, China’s rapid development has benefited from large-scale infrastructure construction projects, one of which is the high-speed rail (HSR) project [1]
We introduce the concept of coupling into the field of project risk management and focus on risk coupling effects in HSR projects
The total risk of the ZW HSR project is divided into five risk ratings according to the risk score classifications of the Benjamin-Graham assessment method ( known as the LEC: L × E × C method) [71]
Summary
China’s rapid development has benefited from large-scale infrastructure construction projects, one of which is the high-speed rail (HSR) project [1]. The components of the project are subject to change as part of a dynamic coordination process [15] Such dynamic complexity makes the risks of HSR projects highly interrelated, and the risks are conductive within and between the internal and external environments of the system [16]. When there are multiple risks transmitted through the project, their interactions may lead to rapid increases in risk or the creation of new risks, increasing negative impacts that could cause the HSR project to fail to achieve its objectives and/or suffer irreparable losses. In order to account for coupling risk in HSR project risk assessments, a system dynamics model is developed to describe and simulate risk coupling effects qualitatively and quantitatively. The findings provide an important decision-making reference for managers of HSR and other major infrastructure projects
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