Risk assessment of fast-track projects: a systems-based approach

Abstract

Fast-tracking the large infrastructure projects through overlapping design and construction levitates multifaceted risks aggravating project complexity critical to efficient planning. Traditional risk management largely treats risk independently ignoring their interrelationships, limiting the understanding of the strength of risk nuclii of the project. To overcome this challenge, recent risk management studies emphasize on employing dynamic risk assessment approaches. In line with these efforts, the current study pertaining to fast-track projects was carried out focusing on delineating the interrelations among critical risk factors and the resulting impact chain on project performance indicators (cost, time, quality, safety and productivity). The resultant risk dynamics were demonstrated using qualitative systems thinking approach: causal loop diagrams (CLDs). In total, six CLDs were obtained providing insight into risk mechanisms impacting project performance. Construction rework, productivity, time overrun, resource allocation, cost overrun and quality of work were found as the most critical and mutually effecting factors. The CLD consists of risk cycles prioritized according to their strength and speed of impact in the system. This technique highlights vigorous loops, resonant mechanisms which provide information of process within the system and can help decision makers to develop robust risk mitigation strategies and quantitative tools for assessing fast-track project risks.