Risk Assessment of Critical Energy Infrastructure Considering Physical and Cyber Assets: Methodology and Models

Abstract

This paper considers a serious issue pertaining to determine a combined risk assessment of the Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) based on using of overall analytical and stochastic methodology, which gives a possibility to consider both behavior, causes and effects for different negative events of critical energy infrastructure components. Authors offer to employ Semi-Markov Modeling Process in order to determine stochastic availability level of the CEI and the method of cause-and-effect decomposition to determine a deterministic assessment of consequences from the negative impacts. In addition, authors tried to solve this complex task considering physical and cyber assets, including possible usage of cloud services. Overall risk assessment can be used for optimization infrastructure by identification of impacts levels on different infrastructure objects, as well as enhance resilience property and improvement of operational CEI performance.