Abstract
In recent years, African swine fever (ASF) has become prevalent in many areas, including Asia. The repeated detection of the ASF virus (ASFV) genome in pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) was also reported from Japanese airports. In the present study, the risk of ASFV exposure to susceptible hosts in Japan via three different pathways was assessed. Two quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were built to estimate the annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs, which could be attributed to foreign job trainees or foreign tourists. A semi-quantitative stochastic model was built to assess the risk of ASFV exposure to wild boar caused by foreign tourists. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs via PPAP carried by foreign job trainees was 0.169 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.000–0.600], whereas that by foreign tourists was 0.050 [95% CI: 0.000–0.214], corresponding to approximately one introduction every 5.9 and 20 years, respectively. The risk of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs was dispersed over the country, whereas that of wild boar was generally higher in the western part of Japan, indicating that the characteristics of the potential ASF risk in each prefecture were varied.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly haemorrhagic and devastating disease in swine caused by ASF virus (ASFV)
The aim of the present study is to evaluate the probability of ASFV exposure to susceptible animals in Japan via pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) by a combination of quantitative and semi-quantitative methods
The overall mean annual probability of domestic pig exposure to ASFV via PPAP by foreign job trainees was estimated to be 0.169 (95% confidence interval (CI); 0.000–0.600), which approximately corresponds to one introduction every 5.9 years
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly haemorrhagic and devastating disease in swine caused by ASF virus (ASFV). ASFV play essential roles in the transmission of the disease [1]. In addition to direct contact between these hosts, indirect contact with materials contaminated with ASFV, such as swill feeding, is one of the crucial causes of ASF outbreaks, which may occur even in a distant place [2]. The illegal trade in animal or pork products and the movement of ASF-affected wild boar play important roles in disease transmission to ASF-free territories [3]. None of the effective vaccines against ASFV have been commercialised to date [4], despite the high mortality rate among affected animals, and control measures against ASF rely heavily on preventing the introduction of the disease into ASF-free territories by means of strict border controls
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