Abstract
Abstract A water supply system is a critical infrastructure to support industrial and agricultural production and human life. It often operates abnormally in an emergent risk situation, resulting in shortage or suspension of water supply, even health risk and economic losses. In order to reduce negative impacts posed by these potential threats, identifying and evaluating possible risks in a water supply system has been becoming more necessary. For this reason, we establish two risk assessment models in accordance with two different situations based on uncertainty theory in the presence of insufficient historical data. In the proposed models, we first discuss emergency in three respects: the possibility of emergency occurrence, the consequence caused by emergency and system vulnerability. Then the risk to a water supply system is defined by the uncertain measure of loss-positive by incorporating a risk tolerance index and loss function contributed by the above analysis. Moreover, several theorems for calculating the risk index of series and parallel water supply systems are presented. Finally, we illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed models by implementing a series of numerical examples and further present some noteworthy observations.
Highlights
Nowadays, integrated systems, such as water supply systems, are more than ever under the threat of emergent risk events, including natural disasters and man-made attacks, due to the deterioration of natural environment and intensification of contradictions
On the basis of these analyses, we present a new loss function of a water supply system, and define the risk index as the uncertain measure of loss-positive to propose a novel risk assessment model
We presented two risk assessment models to investigate the impact of emergency on a water supply system
Summary
Nowadays, integrated systems, such as water supply systems, are more than ever under the threat of emergent risk events, including natural disasters and man-made attacks, due to the deterioration of natural environment and intensification of contradictions. Since the historical data about emergency is relatively rare, or non-existent, it is hard to identify the probability that an emergent risk event will occur and estimate the probability distribution of consequences posed by such an event To tackle these difficulties, in this study we adopt a new mathematical tool: uncertainty theory (Liu ), which has been proven to be an effective approach to deal with the uncertainty arising from the lack of historical data. On the basis of these analyses, we present a new loss function of a water supply system, and define the risk index as the uncertain measure of loss-positive to propose a novel risk assessment model. Later, this model is modified for the situation in which the emergency results in uncertain supply and uncertain demand of water simultaneously. The final section concludes the paper and discusses the directions for future research
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