Risk Assessment Models of the Use of Innovative Technologies in Construction as a Factor in the Development of Energy Management

Abstract

The article discusses the risks of investment projects with the use of nanotechnology for the development of energy management in the construction industry. Various innovative projects used in the construction industry in the production of new types of materials and structures are considered. Classification of risks is given, and methods for their assessment are defined. Identification and analysis of risks is the first step in the organizational risk management mechanism, which allows defining and taking timely measures to eliminate them. The article defines the probability of occurrence of risks based on methods of stochastic modeling. Since the considered risks have a different nature of occurrence, the conditions of occurrence, and the results of the impact, so, consequently, the calculation mechanisms are built on different models. In the absence of statistical data and the need to predict possible scenarios, a predictive model of the probability of occurrence of unsystematic risks is used, which is presented as a logit model used to predict an event. A quantitative analysis of risks based on the calculation of the price of risks is made. The risks that have a high probability of occurrence and at the same time bear significant damage to the project are identified. A method of forming risk clusters by the size of possible damage and the probability of an event occurrence is proposed. The degree of influence of each risk group on the development of an innovative project in construction has been determined.