Risk Assessment Method for Ship Based on Improved Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making

Abstract

Aimed at the uncertainties and relevance issues during the risk factor identification in multicriteria decision-making, this paper presents a ship risk assessment model based on the improved fuzzy multicriteria decision-making. First, on the basis of safety assessment and importance judgment of risk sources conducted by experts, the peer-to-peer consensus model is employed to integrate the relative importance of risk sources and obtain the weight of experts; the weight of risk factors is then determined by nonlinear programming model according to the experts’ preference for risk sources; finally, the risk assessment is carried out using the MULTIMOORA method and the final ranking of the alternatives is determined by means of the fuzzy number quantitative calculation method. Analysis and research are conducted on specific causes of ship engine room fires, and the results are compared with outcomes of the traditional MULTIMOORA method and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on Monte Carlo simulation. It is concluded that the calculated ranking results are more reasonable, hence verifying the superiority of this model.