Risk Assessment in Energy Infrastructure Installations by Horizontal Directional Drilling Using Machine Learning

Maria Krechowicz,Adam Krechowicz

doi:10.3390/en14020289

Maria Krechowicz, Adam Krechowicz

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14020289

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Journal: Energies	Publication Date: Jan 7, 2021
Citations: 12	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Kielce University of Technology

Abstract

Nowadays we can observe a growing demand for installations of new gas pipelines in Europe. A large number of them are installed using trenchless Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) technology. The aim of this work was to develop and compare new machine learning models dedicated for risk assessment in HDD projects. The data from 133 HDD projects from eight countries of the world were gathered, profiled, and preprocessed. Three machine learning models, logistic regression, random forests, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were developed to predict the overall HDD project outcome (failure free installation or installation likely to fail), and the occurrence of identified unwanted events. The best performance in terms of recall and accuracy was achieved for the developed ANN model, which proved to be efficient, fast and robust in predicting risks in HDD projects. Machine learning applications in the proposed models enabled eliminating the involvement of a group of experts in the risk assessment process and therefore significantly lower the costs associated with the risk assessment process. Future research may be oriented towards developing a comprehensive risk management system, which will enable dynamic risk assessment taking into account various combinations of risk mitigation actions.

Highlights

Pro–ecological trends in the European Union’s energy policy are reflected in the increasing popularity of sustainable development idea and the related increase in the demand for energy from natural gas resulted in a growth in the demand for the construction of new gas pipelines in Europe
According to Statistics Poland data the consumption of natural gas in Poland in 2017 reached 628.5 PJ [2], and in 2018 it increased to 660.3 PJ [3]
Preliminary estimated risk level for the Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) project (x136) increased with the decrease of the no. site investigation methods applied (x71), no. of working shifts (x106), with proximity of backfills which could act as a drainage (x121), if works were carried out in spring (x128) or winter (x131) which posed many risks, if no additives to the drilling fluids reducing collapse risks were used (x144) and if other steering systems than gyroscope were used (x15 = GYRO)

Summary

Introduction

Pro–ecological trends in the European Union’s energy policy are reflected in the increasing popularity of sustainable development idea and the related increase in the demand for energy from natural gas resulted in a growth in the demand for the construction of new gas pipelines in Europe. According to the data of Eurostat in 2019, natural gas inland consumption in the European Union increased by 4.2% compared with 2018, reaching a level not seen since 2010 [1]. In the case of trenchless technologies, greenhouses gases emissions are lower due to: shorter project durations, less equipment requirements and smaller footprint of excavation area used, compared with open-cut pipeline installation methods [5]. This technology as each trenchless or open-cut construction technique is associated with certain risk, which should be assessed. It is important to stress that risk assessment is imperative for each construction project

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