Risk assessment in cross-border transport infrastructure projects: A fuzzy hybrid method considering dual interdependent effects

Abstract

To promote trade facilitation and regional integration, several cross-border transport infrastructure (CBTI) projects have been implemented and are accompanied by high complexity, difficulty, and uncertainty. This presents a multi-dimensional challenge for risk assessment. However, the challenge is amplified by the presence of dual interdependent effects induced by risk factor cascading propagation and project interaction. The purpose of this study involves developing a fuzzy decision analysis method for risk assessment in CBTI projects by considering dual interdependent effects. First, a holistic risk assessment framework with five resolution phases is presented and includes preliminary preparation, information processing, interdependent effect analysis, risk aggregation, and risk rating. Subsequently, a fuzzy hybrid method is proposed based on extending and integrating the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), two-additive Choquet integral (TACI), and fuzzy reasoning. The method is used to clarify the risk profile of the CBTI project, and the risk sources and risk controllability are further diagnosed to support risk treatment. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated via a potential application. The results indicate that the proposed method that considers dual interdependent effects is advantageous in terms of ensuring risk assessment accuracy and risk treatment effectiveness in CBTI projects.