Risk Assessment in Construction Projects Using the Grey Theory

Abstract

Construction projects are of a particular nature and are affected by many factors, which exposes them to risks due to the long implementation period and the multiplicity of phases from the project idea phase through the implementation phase to the final delivery of the project, which leads to increased uncertainty and increased likelihood of these risks. This paper examines the risks in construction projects in Libya, and their impact on project objectives. This research identified risks in construction projects based on previous studies and a number of interviews with experts in construction projects, as well as field visits to project sites. On this basis, a questionnaire was prepared to locate and identify the risks that construction projects may face and was distributed to a number of local companies affiliated to the Libyan state operating in the construction sector. After the compilation of the questionnaire, the risks were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to determine the impact of each risk and the probability of its occurrence. The results of the study showed that 28% of the risks are certain and high, and 53% of the risks affect the project implementation time to a high degree. The results also showed a strong correlation between the probability of occurrence of the risks. Grey theory was used to weigh and rank the most important risks, and the most important of these was the insufficient manpower, material and equipment criterion.