Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part II: Consequence models and applications to determination of target reliabilities

Abstract

The paper presents applications of the framework for generic risk assessment for FPSO systems described in a companion paper [1]. Consequence models for structural risk assessment are developed for failure of hull girder sections, hull components and mooring lines using Bayesian Probabilistic Networks (BPN). The estimation of conditional probabilities required in the BPN models, such as the probability of a combined failure of several components and system failure conditional on components failure, are discussed. The risk assessment framework is applied for decision making on target reliabilities for ULS design of mooring lines. The target reliabilities are found by optimizing expected life-cycle costs and verifying compliance with risk acceptance criteria developed according to the Life Quality Index (LQI) principle. It is shown that the optimal reliability index, which minimizes total expected costs, may not always lead to an acceptable solution from the point-of-view of the LQI criterion.