Risk assessment for onshore wind projects in Canada

Abstract

The construction phase of onshore wind farm projects involves different types of risks that hinder their development. This study aims to identify and assess risk factors that affect the construction of onshore wind farm projects and rank them based on their severity as assessed from the Canadian perspective. Thirty risk factors were collected through an extensive literature review. Then, experts were asked to subjectively evaluate the probability and impact of each factor on project cost, time, quality, and safety. The fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS) and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) were used to rank these risk factors based on their severity. The closeness coefficient (CC) indicated that a lack of management expertise, a shortage of resources required for project delivery, adverse weather, material damage during construction, and failure to keep up with recent innovative technology are the most severe risks affecting onshore wind farm projects in Canada with CC values of 0.9710, 0.9642, 0.9635, 0.9575, and 0.9450, respectively. The findings of this study support the decision making of investors and contractors who work in the Canadian wind energy industry by highlighting the critical risk factors. Moreover, this study is beneficial for decision makers in other jurisdictions since a review and a list of risk factors that affect the construction of onshore wind projects are provided herein.