Risk assessment calculations using MEPAS, an accepted screening methodology, and an uncertainty analysis for the reranking of Waste Area Groupings at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Environmental Restoration Program

Abstract

The Waste Area Groupings (WAGs) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were reranked with respect to on- and off-site human health risks using two different methods. Risks associated with selected contaminants from each WAG for occupants of WAG 2 or an off-site area were calculated using a modified formulation of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) and a method suitable for screening, referred to as the ORNL/ESD method (the method developed by the Environmental Sciences Division at ORNL) in this report. Each method resulted in a different ranking of the WAGs. The rankings from the two methods are compared in this report. All risk assessment calculations, except the original MEPAS calculations, indicated that WAGs 1; 2, 6, 7 (WAGs 2, 6 and 7 as one combined WAG); and 4 pose the greatest potential threat to human health. However, the overall rankings of the WAGs using constant parameter values in the different methods were inconclusive because uncertainty in parameter values can change the calculated risk associated with particular pathways, and hence, the final rankings. Uncertainty analysis using uncertainties about all model parameters were used to reduce biases associated with parameter selection and to more reliably rank waste sites accordingmore » to potential risks associated with site contaminants. Uncertainty analysis indicates that the WAGs should be considered for further investigation, or remediation, in the following order: (1) WAG 1; (2) WAGs 2, 6, and 7 (combined); and 4; (3) WAGs 3, 5, and 9; and, (4) WAG 8.« less