Risk Assessment as a Decision-Making Tool for Treatment of Emissions at a New Aluminum Smelter in Iceland: 1. Background and Introduction

Abstract

ABSTRACT Protection of human health and ecosystems is gaining importance in corporate decision- making regarding industrial development. During the design phase for an aluminum smelter in East Iceland, it became necessary to determine whether a wet scrubber system should be installed to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions. Predictive risk assessment was used to determine whether there would be a consequential difference in the level of risk to human and ecological receptors from constituents in air emissions from the aluminum smelter, either with or without wet scrubbers. Benchmark exposure concentrations were established for avian, mammalian, and plant receptors and were compared to air modeling predictions to develop risk estimates. Benchmark concentrations were derived using plant uptake models for fluoride and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and food-web modeling for birds and mammals. Exposure models were developed for all receptors, and population-level effects were modeled for plant, bird, and mammal receptors. Results indicated that exposures under both scenarios are lower than risk thresholds, and overall risk was lower for a smelter without wet scrubbers. Thus, although mass loading of sulfur dioxide (and other constituents) would be reduced using wet scrubbers, the corresponding risk to ecological receptors would actually be higher because of higher exposure-point concentrations in air.