Risk assessment and simulation of gas pipeline leakage based on Markov chain theory

Abstract

Gas pipeline leakage may lead to fire, explosion and gas poisoning, thus causing a large number of injuries and property damage. This paper focuses on the chain characteristics presented by the development process of city gas pipeline leakage, based on Markov chain theory, studies the disaster-causing process and the mechanism of disaster chain formation for the leakage, establishes the disaster chain, evaluates the pipeline operation status and quantifies the failure probability of gas pipeline leakage to determine the causes of the leakage. Subsequently, Pipeline Studio is applied to simulate the consequences of gas pipeline leakage to realize the risk analysis. The analysis is based on Markov chain theory to calculate the probability of leakage and disaster-causing causes, analyze the consequences of gas pipeline leakage, and realize the diagnosis of the causes of gas pipeline leakage accidents and the prediction of the accident development trend. Finally, using European gas pipeline accident data to prove the effectiveness of the method, the result shows that gas pipeline leakage accidents are mainly caused by third-party damage and corrosion, which is consistent with the real situation and provides a reference for risk analysis and accident prevention of gas pipeline leakage.