Risk Assessment and Reliability Analysis of Oil Pump Unit Based on D-S Evidence Theory

Abstract

Oil pumps are crucial equipment in pipeline transportation, and their safe and reliable operation is essential for the smooth and efficient operation of the oil station and associated pipelines. The failure of oil pumps can result in significant consequences, making it crucial to evaluate their safety for effective maintenance and reliable system prediction. Failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) is a quantitative fault analysis technique that assigns priority to fault modes using the risk priority number (RPN). However, the RPN may not accurately express uncertainty judgments of risk factors given by multiple experts. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a novel FMECA method based on the D-S evidence theory. The method involves using interval form to obtain risk factor evaluations from experts and data combination to obtain a multi-value representation of the RPN for each fault mode. The prioritization of fault modes is optimized using confidence and fidelity distribution to eliminate multiple modes of the same level. Finally, the normalization method is used to determine the risk degree ranking of oil pump units. Overall, the proposed method is an effective and practical approach for the risk evaluation and reliability analysis of oil pump units.