Risk Assessment and Prevention Strategy of Virus Infection in the Context of University Resumption

Abstract

The risk assessment system of virus infection probability and the prevention measures for virus transmission are keys to controlling epidemics. In the context of university resumption, this study identifies the risk elements in terms of the mechanism of virus transmission. The effect of two recognized effective measures, i.e., occupancy constraints and ventilation intervention, on the infection risk are quantified and compared using the improved Wells–Riley model. Considering the priority of these two measures, the controlling quantity are determined, and the optimal schemes are proposed based on the targeted infection risk. The results show that the effect of reducing infection risk by constraining occupancy within 25% of all public campus buildings is better than that achieved by increasing the ventilation rate alone. If the ventilation system of the building type is operated by occupiers, it is a priority to prevent the risk of virus infection by restricting occupancy and ensuring the distance between occupants, while if the ventilation system of the building type is centrally controlled, it is a priority to increase the ventilation rate and then limit the occupancy rate during peak periods to 75%.