Risk assessment and prediction of rebleeding in bleeding gastroduodenal ulcer.

Abstract

The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for recurrence of hemorrhage in bleeding gastroduodenal ulcers after endoscopic injection therapy, and to develop a simple and relevant prognostic score which could be used to assess the early risk of recurrence and the residual risk of rebleeding. A prospective study was conducted from January 1995 to December 1998, in 738 patients who were admitted to our department for acute bleeding peptic ulcer and who underwent endoscopic examination. Ulcers with active bleeding or signs of recent bleeding were treated with injection therapy using epinephrine (1/10,000) and 1% polidocanol. Multivariate analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, recent surgery, systolic blood pressure below 100 mmHg, hematemesis, Forrest classification, and ulcer size and site were significantly predictive variables for the recurrence of hemorrhage. Among these, Forrest classification was the most important. The overall accuracy of the predictive model was 71% (95% CI = 63 - 79%). The model showed a better sensitivity of 90% for early rebleeding (< 48 hours) than for late rebleeding (> or = 48 hours) where the sensitivity was 65 %. A prognostic score was obtained and patients were classified into four risk classes: very low (VL), low (L), high (H), and very high (VH). The rebleeding rates for the four classes were 0%, 7.9%, 31.8% and 67.9%, and the mortality rates were 5.9%, 8.6%, 13.9% and 35.7%, respectively. The residual risk of rebleeding after 48 hours was 0%, 3.3%, 10.4%, and 14.3% in the VL, L, H and VH classes, respectively. After 5 days the residual risk was under 4% in all classes. This study demonstrates that the proposed prognostic score, which is easily obtained after emergency endoscopy, is useful in clinical practice because it can identify patients with different levels of rebleeding risk. It can be helpful in patient management and decision making for discharge.