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Abstract
BackgroundFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia.ResultsAfter simulation by Monte Carlo, the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone (Surrounding the areas where no epidemic disease has occurred within the prescribed time limit, the construction of buffer areas is called surveillance zone.) of Russia was 1.29 × 10− 6. The probability that at least one FMD positive case was exported from Russia per year in the surveillance zone was 6 %. The predicted number of positive cattle of the 39,530 - 50,576 exported from Russia per year was 0.06. A key node in the impact model was the probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone. By semi-quantitative model calculation, the risk probability of FMD defense system defects was 1.84 × 10− 5, indicating that there was a potential risk in the prevention and control measures of FMD in Russia. The spatial time scan model found that the most likely FMD cluster (P < 0.01) was in the Eastern and Siberian Central regions.ConclusionsThere was a risk of FMDV among cattle exported from Russia, and the infection rate of cattle in the monitored area was the key factor. Understanding the export risk of FMD in Russia and relevant epidemic prevention measures will help policymakers to develop targeted surveillance plans.
Highlights
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide
In this work, we constructed a stochastic decision tree model to provide a preliminary estimate of the risk of FMD positive cattle being exported from Russia
The results showed that there was a risk of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) among cattle exported from Russia, and the sensitivity analysis indicated that the infection rate of cattle in the monitored area was the key factor
Summary
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. We aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease of livestock and wild cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. In 2014, four FMD outbreaks (including three cases of A-type and one case of O-type) occurred in the Trans-Baikal territory region, and 28 cattle were infected [13]. The cattle are at risk of being exposed to the virus and infection, which will bring losses to the livestock breeding industry of importing countries. It is important to assess the risk of Russian cattle exports
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