Risk assessment and early predictors of survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the province of Trento, Italy

Abstract

Early prognostication of patients experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains difficult, with no recommended risk assessment tool. The aim of this study was to determine and assess the association between available variables with survival at discharge of patients with OHCA in our regional reality. We conducted a retrospective observational study in a single-center cohort of 236 consecutive patients with OHCA and return of spontaneous circulation admitted to the S. Chiara Hospital (Trento, Italy) from 2012 to 2015. We applied a backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression performed on 26 variables significantly related to outcome to identify predictors. The final model was evaluated for discrimination with area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic curve and for calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test and with calibration belt. We identified four independent factors predictive of outcome: age, arterial blood pH, coronary angiography execution and intervention of helicopter. The final model presented good discrimination with an average AUC of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.84) and was well calibrated, as confirmed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.45) and the calibration belt plot (p=0.597). Age, arterial blood pH, coronary angiography execution and intervention of helicopter were variables predictive of outcome. Identified predictors are in agreement with the literature and relate to local reality. Accurate prognostic assessment would facilitate an earlier identification of patients who may benefit from intensive advanced post-resuscitation care.