Risk assessment and decision making in child protective services: Predictive risk modeling in context

Abstract

In an era in which child protective service agencies face increased demands on their time and in an environment of stable or shrinking resources, great interest exists in improving risk assessment and decision support. In this article, we review the literature and provide a context for predictive risk modeling in the current risk assessment paradigm in child protective services. We describe how predictive analytics or predictive risk modeling using linked administrative data may provide a useful complement to current approaches. We argue that leveraging technology and using existing data to improve initial triage and assessment decisions will enable caseworkers to focus on what they do best: engaging families and providing needed services.