Abstract
Climate change has been described as the main threat for the cultivation and growth of truffles, but hydroclimate variability and model uncertainty challenge regional projections and adaptation strategies of the emerging sector. Here, we conduct a literature review to define the main Périgord truffle growing regions around the world and use 20 global climate models to assess the impact of future trends and extremes in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture on truffle production rates and price levels in all cultivation regions in the Americas, Europe, South Africa, and Australasia. Climate model simulations project 2.3 million km2 of suitable land for truffle growth will experience 50% faster aridification than the rests of the global land surface, with significantly more heat waves between 2070 and 2099 CE. Overall, truffle production rates will decrease by ∼15%, while associated price levels will increase by ∼36%. At the same time, a predicted increase in summer precipitation and less intense warming over Australasia will likely alleviate water scarcity and support higher yields of more affordable truffles. Our findings are relevant for truffle farmers and businesses to adapt their irrigation systems and management strategies to future climate change.
Highlights
Increasing temperature means and changes in precipitation totals are likely to affect the productivity and functioning of ecosystems and agriculture in the 21st century (Gornall et al 2010, Challinor et al 2014, Ray et al 2015)
Truffle production rates will decrease by ∼15%, while associated price levels will increase by ∼36%
Our findings are relevant for truffle farmers and businesses to adapt their irrigation systems and management strategies to future climate change
Summary
Increasing temperature means and changes in precipitation totals are likely to affect the productivity and functioning of ecosystems and agriculture in the 21st century (Gornall et al 2010, Challinor et al 2014, Ray et al 2015). Regions with a Mediterranean climate, such as southern Europe, the western United States, central Chile, South Africa, and parts of Australasia are vulnerable to anthropogenic warming (Mann and Gleick 2015, Cramer et al 2018, Rojas et al 2019). An ever-growing number of plantations of this most sought-after ectomycorrhizal ascomycete, i.e. the black truffle, can strengthen local economies and may even enhance ecological stability, in the traditional trufficulture areas of southern Europe (Büntgen et al 2017), and in Mediterranean parts of the Americas, South Africa and Australasia (Hall et al 2003, Reyna and Garcia-Barreda 2014). Under current and projected climate change, the truffle sector, requires advanced irrigation systems to reduce the risk of drought-induced fluctuations in the quantity and quality of their annual harvests (Büntgen et al 2012, Thomas and Büntgen 2019). Understanding the direct and indirect effects of a warmer and drier climate on the intertwined global truffle sector is fundamental to refine adaptation strategies and inform decision-making at a wide range of relevant ecological, socio-political and economic scales
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