Risk and Protective Factors of Current Opioid Use Among Youth Living on or Near American Indian Reservations: An Application of Machine Learning.

Abstract

Opioid use among youth, particularly among American Indian (AI) youth, is rising, resulting in a large number of accidental overdoses and deaths. In order to develop effective prevention strategies, we need to use exploratory data analysis to identify previously unknown predictors of opioid use among youth living on or near reservations. The present study is an application of Machine Learning, a type of exploratory data analysis, to the Our Youth, Our Future epidemiological survey (N = 6482) to determine salient risk and protective factors for past 30-day opioid use. The Machine Learning algorithm identified 11 salient risk and protective factors. Importantly, highest risk was conferred for those reporting recent cocaine use, having ever tried a narcotic other than heroin, and identifying as American Indian. Protective factors included never having tried opioids other than heroin, infrequent binge drinking, having fewer friends pressuring you to use illicit drugs, initiating alcohol use at a later age, and being older. This model explained 61% of the variance in the training sample and, on average, 24% of the variance in the bootstrapped samples. Taken together, this model identifies known predictors of 30-day opioid use, for example, recent substance use, as well as unknown predictors including being AI, Snapchat use, and peer encouragement for use. Notably, recent cocaine use was a more salient predictor of recent opioid use than lifetime opioid use.