Risk and Protective Factors for Cholera Deaths during an Urban Outbreak-Lusaka, Zambia, 2017-2018.

Abstract

The Republic of Zambia declared a cholera outbreak in Lusaka, the capital, on October 6, 2017. By mid-December, 20 of 661 reported cases had died (case fatality rate 3%), prompting the CDC and the Zambian Ministry of Health through the Zambia National Public Health Institute to investigate risk factors for cholera mortality. We conducted a study of cases (cholera deaths from October 2017 to January 2018) matched by age-group and onset date to controls (persons admitted to a cholera treatment center [CTC] and discharged alive). A questionnaire was administered to each survivor (or relative) and to a family member of each decedent. We used univariable exact conditional logistic regression to calculate matched odds ratios (mORs) and 95% CIs. In the analysis, 38 decedents and 76 survivors were included. Median ages for decedents and survivors were 38 (range: 0.5-95) and 25 (range: 1-82) years, respectively. Patients aged > 55 years and those who did not complete primary school had higher odds of being decedents (matched odds ratio [mOR] 6.3, 95% CI: 1.2-63.0, P = 0.03; mOR 8.6, 95% CI: 1.8-81.7, P < 0.01, respectively). Patients who received immediate oral rehydration solution (ORS) at the CTC had lower odds of dying than those who did not receive immediate ORS (mOR 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0-0.6, P = 0.02). Cholera prevention and outbreak response should include efforts focused on ensuring access to timely, appropriate care for older adults and less educated populations at home and in health facilities.