Risk Analysis Using Simulation: A Case Study of Construction Industry

Abstract

Over time and over budget can not be denied occur in a construction project. One of them is caused by supply chain management who less effective to overcome these problems. Purpose of this research is to build a modeling that can detect supply chain risk factors by simulating changes and the impact on the risk of time and cost of the project. Risk register is performed by identifying risks based sources of uncertainty surrounding supply chain. That identification is classified into the life cycle stages of construction, it can more easily analyzed. Historical data for the probability and impact can be simulated through field observation, survey questionnaires and interviews with 15 respondent. The final result of this study found that out of 30 risks that have been carried out monte simulation, 4 risks are included in the high risk assessment, 11 risks are entered in the medium risk assessment and 15 the risk of entering the risk assessment is low. 4 risks that get high scores are then interviewed with the main contractor project manager to find the risk management strategy. The response of these 4 risks is to reduce the impact of risk by following the operational standards of construction projects in the form of material permit applications and permits to carry out work, and noticing the amount of supply in the warehouse should not be less than 30% so there is no waiting time in the field. The results of this study will be able to provide reports to the project manager so that they can anticipate the impact of supply chain risk construction that may occur in the implementation of construction.