Risk analysis, practice, and considerations in capital budgeting: Evidence from the field for the bio-based industry

Abstract

This study aims to examine how organizations in the bio-based industry perceive risks and perform risk analysis within the capital investment decision-making process. More specifically, this study aims to assess sources of uncertainty commonly considered, identify tools and methods used for risk assessment, and understand how risk analysis is considered in capital budgeting. Eighty-six respondents were electronically surveyed on practices for capital investment risk analysis, including C-suite and upper management from different organization sizes and segments in the bio-based industry. It was found that some forms of risk analysis are utilized either in project assessment and/or for decision making by most respondents; however, qualitative and deterministic assessment practices dominate over probabilistic methods. In addition, risk assessment is most commonly performed in the later stages of a project, with less than 50% of adoption at the earlier stages. Overall, the main sources of uncertainties considered when performing risk assessment are financial, market and sales, and technology, with competition being considered mostly by upper management levels. Additionally, consistent with previous studies in other industry sectors, Internal Rate of Return, Return on Investment, and Net Present Value are the preferred financial indicators used to evaluate capital investments.