Risk analysis of urban network planning in China

Abstract

With the development of the urban social economy in China, the uncertain factors faced by urban network planners and their complexity are continuously increasing. In order to promote the scientific nature of urban network planning in China, the risks of urban network planning need to be identified and analysed systemically. Questionnaires about the risks of urban network planning in China were designed from the perspectives of policy, technology, economics and management. The membership degree of possibility, loss value and expected loss which affect the risks of the urban network planning in China were determined, based on the theory of fuzzy membership through statistical investigation and analysis. Key factors that should be considered in the future were determined. Those factors mainly include whether the government supports the urban power network plan, increases in the cost of levy land and immigration, grid project quality risk management, the deviation of load forecasting and so on. The method improves the comprehensiveness and objectivity of risk identification and provides a decision foundation for the risk aversion of urban power network planning in the developing countries.